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Modeling the present to improve future predictions of extreme rain

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To characterize daily rainfall extremes in the Phoenix metropolitan area and Central Arizona, Mascaro utilized an untapped data set from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County. The network includes records from 310 rain gauges of which 240 have more than 15 years of data.

Mascaro analyzed this “treasure” of data using an alternative statistical approach called peak-over-threshold analysis, which expands the amount of data used to characterize extreme events, thus limiting the uncertainty associated with small sample sizes.

 

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